Think about the wrap-up of what will be the final day of Kamala Harris’ honeymoon. Obama actually phoned in an endorsement this morning, which means until the Democrats dig up FDR’s corpse, the potential sugar excessive of the endorsement is over. Harris could get a quick news-cycle increase from his Veepstakes decide and from the conference, however probably the most actual risk to alter the race is from the opening Joe Biden has dug on this introductory week.
And in keeping with CNN polling analyst Harry Enten final night time, that risk has turn into largely unrealistic. And truly, Trump had a fairly good week — once more:
CNN: Kamala has virtually no velocity.
A optimistic change for Democrats goes from Biden to Harris.
He’s nonetheless broadly unpopular exterior of California.pic.twitter.com/seIfsZO3t3
— Paul A. Czipula 🇺🇸 (@Bubblebathgirl) July 26, 2024
HARRY ENTEN, CNN SENIOR DATA REPORTER: Sure, you talked about a really tight race, and I imply a completely very tight race. However right here one factor needs to be stored in thoughts. I feel that is all of this dialogue of the Harris movement. Perhaps there’s some velocity, however I would argue that it is truly a bit smaller than folks assume.
So, pre-Biden dropped out, see, Trump was two forward of Harris. We now take a look at this week’s election, what will we see? We see Trump up one over Harris. The huge change is definitely a change in candidates as a result of earlier than Biden dropped out, he was trailing by six factors in – these very same polls we’re seeing right here, the place Harris trailed by simply two factors. So, the motion is definitely from Biden to Harris, not essentially from Harris himself.
Greater than that, there’s a cautionary facet to the polling information for Democrats. All this discuss of Harris’ arrival, and Harris’ momentum, maybe considerably ignores that Trump himself has some momentum. So, take a look at this, a positive view of Trump. These are all polls taken on the Republican Nationwide Conference. ABC Information/Ipsos, 40%. That is the very best favorable score for Trump in that ballot. How about Quinnipiac? Forty-six p.c. That is the very best for this pollster. In regards to the New York Occasions, the very best on this explicit survey?
So, the very fact is, Harris could have are available in a bit off the tempo, however Trump is polling greatest within the minds of the American public, no less than in keeping with these three pollsters.
If you wish to see what Enten means, RCP has began graphing its common Trump vs. Harris ballot outcomes:
The left facet of the road reveals Trump towards Biden three months earlier than Biden withdrew. After the road, it plots H2H numbers towards Harris. I am undecided why RCP bothered to do that with out graphing all of Harris’ numbers; Pollsters started inspecting this matchup earlier than and particularly after the controversy.
Two issues are clear from this graph. First, Biden did not actually do all of it straight that A lot to debate. On June 27, the day of the controversy, Biden’s RCP averaged 45.1, and it dropped to 43.6 on July 3. By the point Biden withdrew, nonetheless, he had regained a lot of that misplaced floor with an RCP common of 44.8. Trump went from 46.6 on June 27 to 47.9 on July 21, however most of that achieve got here after the assassination try after which the GOP conference.
Second: Harris solely marginally improved on Biden even in the course of the honeymoon week. On June 27, earlier than the controversy, Biden was 1.3 factors behind Trump within the RCP common. Trump had a 3.1-point lead on Sunday, whereas Biden pulled away. Now, on the finish of what needs to be Harris’ friendliest information cycle but, Trump nonetheless leads by 1.7 factors — barely higher than his lead when the controversy aired.
And whereas the safety racket media will nonetheless do their greatest to cowl Kamala, these honeymoon information cycles are coming to an finish. James Carville warned Democrats that they’re too fired up in regards to the success of greeting Grandpa Joe within the cornfield, particularly given the novel nature of their newly anointed substitute and the lengthy haul of his movies and coverage positions. “The ice picks up,” Carville advised the MSNBC panel, “and really it is already beginning to draw back from Harris:
Carville is right….
Maga is coming for Kamala 🤣
📺 Thanks @EricAbenante#Trump2024 pic.twitter.com/OLWQXWB9cN— miguelifornia (@miguelifornia) July 26, 2024
And it will not simply be assault adverts that do the injury. Media retailers could attempt to bury Harris’ project as a ‘border czar’ nowadays, however CNN dropped a bombshell on him at present for his Defend the Police demagoguery – and there is extra the place that got here from. Personnel points that largely fell off the radar display screen when the Biden staff sidelined Harris three years in the past will even return. Actually, my good friend Charlie Spearing wrote a e book about Harris’ radical profession and unqualified government observe document, beginner hoursAnd look again at at present’s follow-up within the Every day Mail:
Behind Harris’ latest public self-branding as a sort, cheerful ‘Momala’, she has earned a nasty repute as an alleged ‘soul-destroying’ office ‘bully’.
Of the unique 71 staffers employed by Harris throughout his first yr in workplace, solely 4 stay on the job. The remaining both resigned or had been fired, in keeping with an evaluation by the nonpartisan watchdog Open the Books.
That interprets to a 92 p.c workers turnover price — and, in keeping with critics, is a attainable signal that Tim Harris’ issues have extra to do with him than anybody else.
Whereas researching my latest Harris biography (‘Beginner Hour’, revealed in January), I used to be shocked by the horror tales I heard from lots of his former workers and skim in numerous experiences.
Within the 2010s, when Harris served as California’s lawyer normal, he was recognized for working a “poisonous” office.
And now that Harris has to take a entrance seat in a presidential marketing campaign, she’ll need to do the sort of high-profile interviews that turned out to be a catastrophe for her and Biden in 2021. Harris has nowhere to cover from that stage of scrutiny; Even with a pleasant media, Harris turns into a word-salad shooter and talks in circles when pressed on sure insurance policies. Has he improved? Nobody is aware of, largely as a result of Democrats rushed to appoint him as an alternative of working for the nomination at an open conference.
Will that backfire? In all probability! And when that occurs, CNN’s Casey Hunt warned two days in the past, Democrat management must clarify why they threw away democracy in favor of an elite anointed — first Biden after which Harris. Click on on RCP to view.
And eventually, Carville sounds pessimistic as a result of he is aware of how poor Harris’s political instincts are. How poor are they?, I hear you asking. Harris nonetheless has the tweet dwell on his feed, following Jesse Smollett’s second conviction for “fraud” in what Harris calls “a modern-day lynching.” It is not simply unhealthy political intuition, both — Harris simply sees silly. Somebody buys Carville the strongest Southern whiskey obtainable. And take his ice decide.
.@Juice Smollett One of many kindest, gentlest folks I do know. I want him a speedy restoration.
It was a modern-day lynching try. Nobody ought to concern for his or her life due to their sexuality or the colour of their pores and skin. We should confront this hatred.
— Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) January 29, 2019
