If Trump loses the election, X will also lose big time

I am engaged on my predictions for social media in 2025, however there’s one significantly well timed prediction amongst them that may’t wait. Though that is in all probability not a radical prediction for individuals who are paying consideration.

The way forward for the platform previously often called Twitter depends upon the result of this week’s US presidential election. If Trump wins, X, and proprietor Elon Musk may also win massive, but when Trump loses, the other can be true. And given X’s bigger struggles, I am undecided the platform will survive one other 12 months if it does.

Here is why:

Elon Musk has put his popularity on the road to help Trump and is doing every little thing he can to get Trump re-elected.

So why is Trump abruptly so devoted?

It is an fascinating query, particularly when as not too long ago as two years in the past, Musk stated:

Elon’s view, two years in the past, was that Trump was too previous to be president and had created an excessive amount of complicated drama whereas in workplace.

And naturally, Trump, in his ordinary model, responded to Musk’s feedback:

Trump additionally famous that masks ought to “Concentrate on getting your self out of the Twitter mess, as a result of he is in all probability $44 billion in debt for nothing.”

But, two years later, they’re brothers in arms, striving towards a objective that Elon ostensibly opposed, utilizing a platform that Trump says is nugatory.

This looks as if an enormous change, however actually, it has much less to do with aligning ideologies, as each males at the moment are extra eager about mentoring, and extra to do with gaining energy on each side of the equation.

Musk’s buy of Twitter has led to political affect and has been capable of sway public opinion on insurance policies and politicians who oppose his numerous plans.

We have seen it in motion, with Musk loudly and repeatedly attacking governments and regulators he has points with, whereas both growing help for individuals who work with him and his firms, or quietly complying with their requests.

The obvious instance is in Brazil, the place X not too long ago defied a courtroom order to droop the profiles of customers recognized by Brazilian officers as disseminating misinformation This insubordination led to X being banned from Brazil for a month, earlier than Elon & Co. lastly determined to behave upon the Brazilian authorities’s request to be reinstated within the nation.

The claims in Brazil relate to customers who proceed to say that the 2022 Brazilian election was “stolen”, ensuing within the ouster of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Numerous investigations have been performed into these claims, and no proof has been discovered to help such claims. And since this demand undermines the present authorities, Brazilian officers have determined to cancel them the place they’ll, demanding that X, amongst others, de-platform these customers.

Musk declined the request, then went on a collection of rants about corruption inside the Brazilian authorities and Brazil’s authorized system, whereas urging Brazilians to vote their authorities out on the subsequent alternative.

But, different governments have requested X to do precisely the identical in eradicating sure accounts deemed to be in violation of native legal guidelines. And so did X, typically with a observe about the way it contradicted itself. However it served such requests anyway.

So why is Elon so offended about Brazil, however not a lot about Turkey, even supposing the underlying concern is precisely the identical?

As a result of Musk misplaced cash when Bolsonaro was voted out, and he is attempting to make use of his energy and affect at X to get again at those that thwarted his enterprise plans.

Bolsonaro and Musk solid a enterprise relationship that stood to offer Musk with important advantages for his initiatives, together with a positive lithium deal for Tesla from a mine in Brazil. Lithium is a key ingredient in electrical automotive batteries, and Musk is working with governments in numerous South American areas to get higher offers for the mineral.

For instance, after ousting Bolivian President Evo Morales, Musk established a 2021 lithium provide settlement with Bolivia, which opposed permitting American firms to come back in and take Bolivia’s assets.

Which, on the time, noticed Musk put up this tweet:

This speaks to his opinion on Twitter and its energy for political affect, and it is usually value noting that following this tweet, Musk started shopping for Twitter inventory, which finally led him to purchase the app.

One other instance is Argentina, the place Musk has been efficient in praising its president, Javier Millais.

Guess who’s engaged on a lithium provide deal for Tesla? That is proper, Millie met Musk Tesla’s Austin headquarters to debate a possible lithium challenge earlier this 12 months.

Musk’s motivation is clear in all of his dealings in X. Tesla is presently engaged on it Institution of latest distribution agreements for its autos. Based on the above, X has additionally accepted the calls for of the Turkish authorities, which is contemplating alternatives for each Tesla And Starlink.

The method is evident, however Trump’s re-election is Musk’s predominant challenge on this entrance and his predominant promoting level for X as a political affect machine.

If Trump wins this week, Elon will have the ability to entry new alternatives for X, whether or not via authorities initiatives or enterprise offers associated to that political affect. The true sport right here for Elon is his skill to advertise X as a solution to affect voters, primarily based on his personal presence on the app, and to push the platform to learn any trigger he chooses.

A Trump victory could be an Elon victory in supporting his private skill to sway ballot outcomes, one thing he might promote to opposition events in lots of areas.

A trump loss, nevertheless, would successfully destroy many, many alternatives for X.

And X must get again on observe. The corporate’s income has fallen someplace round 70% since earlier than Musk took over, whereas it continues to lose hundreds of thousands of customers.

Advertisers distance themselves from Elon’s extra divisive method to platform administration and have little purpose to return. And if you couple that with the massive debt load that Elon saddled the corporate with as a part of the funding for his takeover, and there is not any means X is popping a revenue anytime quickly.

Actually, X is on observe to put up an enormous loss in 2024.

And if issues do not flip round quickly, Musk and his traders will likely be exploited on this entrance, regardless of his private wealth.

So once more, X’s fortunes are very a lot tied to Trump’s fortunes on this election. And if Trump loses, X and Musk will likely be in deep trouble.

A Harris victory would put X on the quick observe to chapter, and if that occurs, I predict that Elon will likely be trying to get out of the social media enterprise within the second half of 2025.

Musk famous in a latest interview that if Trump loses “I’ll succeed”. And whereas specialists do not see the broader ramifications of hitting different initiatives like Tesla or SpaceX, even when Harris wins, X will likely be in a harder spot.

So other than TikTok doubtlessly if Trump is returned to the White Home, different social media angles, stemming straight from the vote, might finally damage X and what’s left of Twitter on the app.