If Trump loses the election, X will also lose big time

I am engaged on my predictions for social media in 2025, however there’s one notably well timed prediction amongst them that may’t wait. Though that is in all probability not a radical prediction for individuals who are paying consideration.

The way forward for the platform previously often called Twitter is dependent upon the result of this week’s US presidential election. If Trump wins, X, and proprietor Elon Musk will even win large, but when Trump loses, the other can also be true. And given X’s bigger struggles, I am unsure the platform will survive one other yr if it does.

Here is why:

Elon Musk has put his fame on the road to help Trump and is doing all the pieces he can to get Trump re-elected.

So why is Trump all of the sudden so devoted?

It is an attention-grabbing query, particularly when as lately as two years in the past, Musk mentioned:

Elon’s view, two years in the past, was that Trump was too previous to be president and had created an excessive amount of complicated drama whereas in workplace.

And naturally, Trump, in his regular type, responded to Musk’s feedback:

Trump additionally famous that masks ought to “Give attention to getting your self out of the Twitter mess, as a result of he is in all probability $44 billion in debt for nothing.”

But, two years later, they’re brothers in arms, striving towards a objective that Elon ostensibly opposed, utilizing a platform that Trump says is nugatory.

This looks like a giant change, however actually, it has much less to do with aligning ideologies, as each males at the moment are extra fascinated by mentoring, and extra to do with gaining energy on either side of the equation.

Musk’s buy of Twitter has led to political affect and has been capable of sway public opinion on insurance policies and politicians who oppose his numerous plans.

We have seen it in motion, with Musk loudly and repeatedly attacking governments and regulators he has points with, whereas both growing help for individuals who work with him and his corporations, or quietly complying with their requests.

The obvious instance is in Brazil, the place X lately defied a court docket order to droop the profiles of customers recognized by Brazilian officers as disseminating misinformation This defiance led to X being banned from Brazil for a month, earlier than Elon & Co. lastly determined to take motion, on the request of the Brazilian authorities, to be reinstated within the nation.

The claims in Brazil relate to customers who proceed to assert that the 2022 Brazilian election was “stolen”, ensuing within the ouster of former president Jair Bolsonaro. Numerous investigations have been performed into these claims, and no proof has been discovered to help such claims. And since this demand undermines the present authorities, Brazilian officers have determined to cancel them the place they will, demanding that X, amongst others, de-platform these customers.

Musk declined the request, then went on a collection of rants about corruption inside the Brazilian authorities and the Brazilian authorized system, urging Brazilians to vote their authorities out on the subsequent alternative.

But, different governments have requested X to do precisely the identical in eradicating sure accounts deemed to be in violation of native legal guidelines. And so did X, generally with a observe about the way it contradicted itself. However it served such requests anyway.

So why is Elon so offended about Brazil, however not a lot about Turkey, even supposing the underlying subject is strictly the identical?

As a result of Musk misplaced cash when Bolsonaro was voted out, and he is making an attempt to make use of his energy and affect at X to get again at those that thwarted his enterprise plans.

Bolsonaro and Musk solid a enterprise relationship that stood to offer Musk with vital advantages for his initiatives, together with a good lithium deal for Tesla from a mine in Brazil. Lithium is a key ingredient in electrical automobile batteries, and Musk is working with governments in numerous South American areas to get higher offers for the mineral.

For instance, after ousting Bolivian President Evo Morales, Musk established a 2021 lithium provide settlement with Bolivia, which opposed permitting American corporations to return in and take Bolivia’s assets.

Which, on the time, noticed Musk put up this tweet:

This speaks to his opinion on Twitter and its energy for political affect, and additionally it is price noting that following this tweet, Musk started shopping for Twitter inventory, which ultimately led him to purchase the app.

One other instance is Argentina, the place Musk has been efficient in praising its president, Javier Millais.

Guess who’s engaged on a lithium provide deal for Tesla? That is proper, Millie met Musk Tesla’s Austin headquarters to debate a possible lithium challenge earlier this yr.

Musk’s motivation is clear in all of his dealings in X. Tesla is at the moment engaged on it Institution of latest distribution agreements for its autos. In line with the above, X has additionally accepted the calls for of the Turkish authorities, which is contemplating alternatives for each Tesla And Starlink.

The strategy is obvious, however Trump’s re-election is Musk’s important challenge on this entrance and his important promoting level for X as a political affect machine.

If Trump wins this week, Elon will be capable to entry new alternatives for X, whether or not by way of authorities initiatives or enterprise offers associated to that political affect. The true sport right here for Elon is his potential to advertise X as a solution to affect voters, based mostly on his personal presence on the app, and to push the platform to learn any trigger he chooses.

A Trump victory could be an Elon victory in supporting his private potential to sway ballot outcomes, one thing he may promote to opposition events in lots of areas.

A trump loss, nonetheless, would successfully destroy many, many alternatives for X.

And X must get again on monitor. The corporate’s income has fallen someplace round 70% since earlier than Musk took over, whereas it continues to lose hundreds of thousands of customers.

Advertisers distance themselves from Elon’s extra divisive strategy to platform administration and have little cause to return. And once you couple that with the massive debt load that Elon saddled the corporate with as a part of the funding for his takeover, and there isn’t any manner X is popping a revenue anytime quickly.

The truth is, X is on monitor to put up a giant loss in 2024.

And if issues do not flip round quickly, Musk and his buyers will probably be exploited on this entrance, regardless of his private wealth.

So once more, X’s fortunes are very a lot tied to Trump’s fortunes on this election. And if Trump loses, X and Musk will probably be in deep trouble.

A Harris victory would put X on the quick monitor to chapter, and if that occurs, I predict that Elon will probably be trying to get out of the social media enterprise within the second half of 2025.

Musk famous in a current interview that if Trump loses “I’ll succeed”. And whereas specialists do not see the broader ramifications of hitting different initiatives like Tesla or SpaceX, even when Harris wins, X will probably be in a more durable spot.

So except for TikTok doubtlessly if Trump is returned to the White Home, different social media angles, stemming instantly from the vote, may in the end harm X and what’s left of Twitter on the app.